Overview
The US Army’s Homeland Infrastructure Security Threats Office (HISTO) was tasked to develop a vulnerability assessment tool that was ubiquitous across all critical infrastructures, allowing infrastructure owners to better understand the risk presented by the current terrorist threat.  CARVER was originally developed as a targeting tool for used by US Special Operations Forces to quickly and thoroughly analyze enemy critical infrastructure to identify a critical node against which a small, well-trained force can launch an attack to disable or destroy that infrastructure.

 

With this in mind, we selected the CARVER targeting tool and reversed engineered it as a vulnerability assessment tool. This tool, known as the CARVER+Shock Vulnerability Assessment Tool was developed by HISTO leadership and was almost immediately put to use in protecting America's Critical Infrastructure. Over the past three years this methodology has been used to uncover previously unidentified weaknesses in multiple agriculture commodities, food, power, energy, and transportation infrastructures. Listed below are organizations that have successfully used the tool under our supervision.

  • The White House Homeland Security Council, Bio Security Team

  • The US Department of Agriculture

  • US Department of Health and Human Services

  • Food and Drug Administration Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN)

  • Government of Mexico Food and Agriculture Officials

  • Privately owned Nuclear Power Plants

  • National Pork Producers Council

  • Various Port and Airlift facilities

  • US NORTHERN COMMAND

  • US SPACE COMMAND

  • Private Oil and Chemical Companies

  • Wind Power Companies

That said, let’s see how the tool works.

 

Using The CARVER+Shock Vulnerability Assessment Tool

  • Know Yourself:  To Know Yourself, we must understand the entire project and all of its subsystems, complexes  and individual components henceforth called the Target System (See Targeting System Characterization) These components are the sources of consequence in our model. They are the tangible items that comprise your system and are broken down into service providers, infrastructure and equipment, consumables, and cyber.

  • Know Your Enemy: To Know Our Enemy, we must understand the level of motivation and capability of those who pose a threat to the Target System, to include their reasons for threatening the system; their desired outcomes or objectives; and their levels of training, equipment, financing, and recruiting.

  • Know Your Environment: What we currently have on hand to protect these components determines our level of vulnerability. T Knowing Our Environment requires us to understand the effects of the geography, climate, politics, economics, and religion of those areas and how they influence the Target System.

 

TARGET SYSTEM CHARACTERIZATION

Target System:  A target system is all the targets situated in a particular geographic area that are functionally related. It also can be a group of targets so related that their destruction or degradation will produce a particular effect desired by the attacker. It may be international in scope (e.g., international banking) and may include modifying behavior or influencing and altering attitudes vice destruction. Examples of target systems include: 

Air transportation systems

Port facilities

Highways

Railways

Waterways and Bridges

Communications networks

Bulk electric power systems

Bulk water systems

Public attitudes

Bulk petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) supplies

Political infrastructure

Economic infrastructure

Social welfare infrastructure

Health services infrastructure

Food Production

 

 Target Subsystem: A target subsystem is a major element of a target system. For example, generation, transmission, and distribution are subsystems of a bulk electric power system.

 Target Complex: A target complex is a concentrated, integrated series of targets.  A target complex may be a subset of a target subsystem. It consists of related facilities and activities that are close to each other in physical or cyberspace. Within a target complex, individual targets will be identified. Ports, airfields, and electric generating plants are examples of target complexes. 

Target Component: Target components are parts of the target that are necessary to the operation of the target as a whole. Target components are broken down into four separate types which include:

  • Service Providers.  This is any living thing that is a part of your system.  It might be a computer operator, a driver, or supervisor.  It may also be a service dog or a horse used for crowd control.

  • Infrastructure and Equipment.  This is anything piece of equipment necessary for the system to operate that is not consumed in the process.  Examples include buildings, storage facilities, processing equipment, vehicles, and transformers.

  • Consumables.  These include any tangible substance that is consumed in your systems operating process.  Examples include fuel, fresh/potable water, breathable air, chemicals, electricity, and food.

  • Cyber and Communications.  We have expanded cyber to include communications equipment and networks.  In short, include anything that transmits information.  Internet, workstations, database software and records. e-mail, radios, repeaters, and telephones.

Critical Node:  A single point of failure for a specific node, preferably one that is critical to the remainder of the target system.

Developing CARVER+Shock Definitions

As I have negligently failed to provide additional literature on this tool since introducing it in 2003, most groups that use the tool use the same set of definitions.  This is not an effective use of the tool nor will it give you the results you seek.  As we stated in previous sections, you have to establish bookends for your definitions.  The standing criticality definition states a death toll of 10,000 people.  If your system cannot make that level of impact, then you need to adjust the 9-10 definition for what ever that top level is. Another example is recognizability,  if your entire system is within a guarded building, then you need to drastically adjust the scale or you end up giving every component a score between 1-4.  Remember, the goal is to determine risk to each component in relation to the other components within  your system, not an absolute set of standards.  Real security experts should know this, but well, who knows what a real security expert is?

One you have listed all of your systems, sub-systems, complexes and components, you need to develop definitions for each factor in the CARVER+Shock acronym.  There are some things you must consider when developing definitions and assigning values.  Here are the ones I have encountered most.

  • Many team members will have some issues with accepting mortality.  Most businesses are driven to a zero tolerance for accidents let alone deaths.  You need to be considerate and talk these folks through this decision.  The bottom line is that any company will react differently to the loss of one employee as opposed to the loss of 75 employees.  I do not care what the COO says, the reaction is noticeably different.

  • The values you assign should all be used in the assessment.  This means there should be some 1's and there should be some 10's in each category.  if not, your definitions are not sensitive enough and you may be masking some vulnerability.  Do not be afraid to go back and change some of your definitions if this is the case..

  • If you have a certain category that is receiving the same score in all components, you will soon render that factor irrelevant.  The definitions are not sensitive enough and should be reevaluated.

  •  Be cautious of a team member setting values too low or too high to either simulate vulnerability in an attempt to gain funding or to hide vulnerability to avoid accountability.

  • If you are doing a tactical assessment (a single facility or complex), you may not always use the shock factor.  Just drop it from the spread sheet as the entity being assessed may not have a significant enough impact on society to register relevant Shock scores.

  • You can use Effect in two ways.  The first is to measure the actual tangible loss as a result of the attack in percentage of production, output etc.  The second is to measure the long term effects such as an act of war, new legislation, effect on the environment etc.  The examples below demonstrate both methods.

Here are a few sets of definitions.  the first one is for a private corporation, the second is for a more strategic assessment in the agriculture industry.

 

Criticality  
•Target (s) consequence value is high (Morbidity, mortality, economics, environmental)  
•To what degree would a successful attack allow the threat to realize their objective  
•Is the target crucial to the success of the rest of the system, does it make the target safe? (i.e. pasteurization facilities for milk)   
Criteria Scale
Potential for loss of over 10 lives; Costs greater than $1 billion; Environmental Impact Severe 9 – 10
Potential for loss of life is between 6-10; Costs between $100 million - $1 billion ; Environmental Impact High 7 – 8
Potential for loss of life between 1-5; Costs between $10-100 million; Environmental Impact Moderate 5 – 6
No loss of life but significant injury or kidnapping; Costs between $1-10 million; Environmental Impact Low 3 – 4
No loss of life; Minor injuries or intimidation of employees; Costs less than $1 million; Environmental Impact Minimal to none 1 – 2 
   
Accessibility  
•Openness of the target to the threat   
•Conduct/Gather Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (consider virtual reconnaissance, Internet)   
•Conduct the attack   
•Egress from the target undetected   
•Casual observation of processes/Resources   
•Unauthorized access to facilities   
•Indirect approaches to facilities (Physical and Virtual)   
Criteria Scale
Easily Accessible 10km or less from shore. No physical or human barrier or observation, observable at 1000 meters or more. Attacker has immediate access from the ground to main entrances.  Multiple specific Internet sources of information. Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered inadequate. 9 – 10 
Accessible 10-15 kms offshore. Either human observation or limited physical barrier, but no means of intervention.  Observable between 500-1000 meters.  Attacker has access to the target for 12 hours or less but must climb the structure unaided. Attack can be carried out using bulky equipment or medium sized vehicles but using significant stealth.  Limited Specific Internet sites.  Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered fair with some exploitable vulnerability. 7 – 8 
Partially Accessible .15-25 km offshore. Human observation and physical barrier with no established means of intervention. Observable from 250-500m meters.  Attacker has access to the target for 2 hours or less Must use climbing aids such as rope or ladder.  Internet. Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered fair. 5 – 6 
Hardly Accessible 25-35 kms. Human observation and physical barrier with an established means of intervention. Observable from 250 meters or less. Limited general information available on the Internet. Attacker has access to the target for less than 1 hour. Equipment must be able to be disguised and time limitations are extreme. Onboard assistance required to climb structure. Limited general information available on the Internet.  Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered good. 3 – 4 
Not Accessible. Over 35 kms offshore. Physical barriers, alarms, and human observation as well as separated by an additional factor such as height.  Defined means of armed intervention.  Observable from less than 100 meters Attacker can access target for less than 15 minutes with all equipment carried in pockets.  No useful information available electronically. Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered excellent. 1 – 2 
   
Recuperability  
•The time it takes to mitigate the damage (Effect and or Shock) inflicted on the target. 
•Recuperability is a vital supporting element of criticality.   
•How long will it take to mitigate the attack?   
•What interventions are already in place?    
Greater than a year 9-10
6-12 months 7-8
3-6 months 5-6
1-3 months 3-4
30 days or less 1-2
   
Vulnerability  
•If the threat has the means (supplies, time, and equipment) and expertise to impose their desired effect?   
•If these means can achieve the desired objectives?   
•To what types of attack is the target susceptible?   
•If attacked, will the target system feel the effects?   
Criteria Scale
Threat can achieve its desired effect in all conditions (Weather, Illumination, sea state)  9-10
Threat can achieve its desired effect in ideal conditions (Calm weather, seas, during limited visibility (Dusk through Dawn) 7-8
Threat can achieve greater than 50% of the desired effect under all conditions = 5-6 5-6
Threat can achieve greater than 50% of the desired effect under ideal conditions (Calm weather, seas, during limited visibility (Dusk through Dawn) 3-4
Threat cannot impose more than 50% its desired effect under any conditions = 1-2 1-2
   
Effect  
What are the long term Tangible or measurable ramifications of the attack  
What are the long term results of the attack (Economic, political, military…) Will it cause an act of war (Afghanistan) Financial depression or recession, New or more restrictive legislation. Environmental Impact  
Criteria Scale
Causes civil  war; Political:  Causes permanent national level legislation or action; Economic:  Impacts Gas revenues for greater than one year; Environmental: Severe 9-10
Causes a prolongued military action; Political:  Causes temporary international strife; Economic: Impacts revenues 6-12 months; Environmental: High 7-8
Causes a single military action or national law enforcement effort; Political:  Causes temporary legislation or changes in policy Economic:  Impacts revenues 3-6 months; Environmental: moderate 5-6
Causes regional military efforts by Nigeria ; Political:  Causes changes in regional policy; Economic:  Impacts revenues for more than a month Environmental: Low 3-4
Causes minimal law enforcement or military activity ; Political:  Causes limited political conflict; Economic:  Impact on Gas revenues is negligible; Environmental:  Minimal to none 1-2
   
Recognizability  
•If can they recognize the target under the conditions they must attack   
•If can they recognize the target via more than one method   
•Consider virtual assets   
•What have we done to increase its visibility   
•What can we do to decrease its visibility   
Criteria Scale
The target is clearly recognizable under all conditions and from a distance and requires little or no training for recognition 9 – 10 
The target is easily recognizable requires a small amount of training for recognition 7 – 8
The target is difficult to recognize at night or in bad weather or might be confused with other targets or target components and requires some training for recognition 5 – 6 
The target is difficult to recognize at night or in bad weather.  It is easily confused with other targets or components and requires extensive training for recognition 3 – 4 
The target cannot be recognized under any conditions, except by experts or insiders 1 – 2 
   
Shock  
The shock value of a successful attack is a psychological effect, but for the purpose of assessing the degree of risk posed by terrorists, this specific effect must be examined separately from other effects.  By definition, terrorists target to achieve terror and cause horror and strong emotional responses from their broader target audience.  Aspects of targets that terrorists view as increasing a target’s shock value are symbolism (e.g., the Pentagon), massive population concentrations (e.g., the World Trade Center in South Manhattan), sensitive nature of facilities (e.g., nuclear facilities), and the ability to strike at core values and primal emotions through their target (e.g., targeting children).  
   
A target has a symbolic value to an attacker when an extremist or terrorist element can attach a relationship between the attacker and the population target, i.e. US Marines have a symbolic value to Lebanese Hezbollah due to the Beirut missions; the World Trade was a symbol of the United States wealth and prosperity; the Pentagon is symbolic of America’s military might, etc.  
   
The table below shows how the symbolic values are assigned on DSHARP matrices.  
CRITERIA SCALE
Target has historical, religious, or, other symbolic significance to at least 50% of the entire population;   9-10
Attacks against this type of target conducted routinely by all known threats
 
Extremely large population center (1000+), new world record: i.e. World Trade Center
Target has historical, religious, or, other symbolic significance to a specific section of the population 7-8
Attacks against this target conducted routinely by primary threat 
 
Significant impact on international policy with mass casualties (100+); Lockerbie Airliner bombing
 
Regarded as “Invulnerable” strong point by defender 5-6
 
Attacks against this type of target have occurred before
 
Significant impact on national policy, large population center (500+), extensive casualties, major stress on infrastructure; Murrah Federal Building
 
Associated with economic or production capability of the victims. 3-4
 
Attacks against this type of target have been threatened
 
Mass Casualty (10+) with significant impact on general population in target area; IRA shopping mall bombings
 
Area of no significant economic, political, theological or related significance 1-2
 
Attacks against this type of target fit the method of operation of the threat 
 
Attack on small number (1-10) on specific individuals (assassination) or types of individuals; El Salvador café, Cairo bus; majority of local populace not affected

 

This is a set of definitions that can be used for a more strategic assessment.  It also offers a good description of how to determine the Shock values.

 

Criticality:  A target is critical when its attack would have a significant influence on military, political, economic, or social activities.  We must ask, “How well will the attack accomplish the goals of the design basis threat?”

Great care must be taken to compare cost vs. the loss of human life.  Select the value based on the most significant level of criticality i.e. if an attack may cost $4 billion but has the ability to take in excess of 10,000 lives, assign the higher rating of 9-10.  Example metrics of criticality for use as a generic model that must be modified for specific sites and scenarios are:

Criteria

Scale

Loss of over 10,000 lives; loss of more than $100 billion

9 – 10

Loss of life is between 1,000 – 10,000; cost between $10 billion and $100 billion

7 – 8

Loss of life between 100 and 1000; Cost between $1 and $10 billion

5 – 6

Loss of life less than 100; cost less than $1 billion

3 – 4

No loss of life, Cost less than $100 million

1 – 2

Recuperability:  A target’s recuperability is measured in the time it will take to replace, repair, or bypass damage to it.  Recuperability varies with the sources and type of targeted components in the target.  Recuperability should factor in such items, as how long will it take to neutralize the attack? In specific, how long after a contamination takes effect can we neutralize its effects?  This may include identifying and gaining control over the food that is at risk, and restoring public confidence in its safety.  What interventions are already in place that may thwart the attack?  If the source of food is critical to the population, how long before alternatives can be identified and put on-line?

 Example metrics of recuperability for use as a generic model that must be modified for specific sites and scenarios are:

Criteria

Scale

Intervention in more than 2 weeks after exposure to the public.

9 – 10

Intervention within 1 to 2 weeks after exposure to the public

7 – 8

Intervention within 72-168 hours after exposure to the public

5 – 6

Intervention within 72 hours after exposure to the public

3 – 4

Intervention prior to exposure to the public

1 – 2

 

Vulnerability:  A target is vulnerable if a threat has the means and expertise to successfully attack it in a way that will result in the desired effect.  Consider whether an attacker, including an insider, can reach the target with sufficient resources to achieve the desired effect.   Accessibility can be either in physical or cyber space.  We must consider cyber and physical aspects of casual observation of processes, unauthorized access to facilities, and indirect approaches to facilities (Physical and Virtual)

 Example metrics of vulnerability for use as a generic model that must be modified for specific sites and scenarios are:

 

Criteria

Scale

Easily Accessible (e.g. no perimeter fence). No physical or human barrier or observation, observable at 100 meters or more. Attacker has unlimited access to the target.  Attack can be carried out using bulky equipment or large volumes of contaminant and without undue concern of detection). Multiple specific Internet sources of information. Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered inadequate.

9 – 10

Accessible (e.g. inside perimeter fence, but outdoors). Either human observation or physical barrier, but no means of intervention.  Observable between 50-100 meters.  Attacker has access to the target for an hour or less. Attack can be carried out using bulky equipment or large volumes of contaminant, but using significant stealth.  Or, attack can be carried out with less gear, but under limited time constraints.  Limited Specific Internet sites.  Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered fair with some significant vulnerability.

7 – 8

Partially Accessible (e.g. inside a building, but in a relatively unsecured part of facility). Human observation and physical barrier with no established means of intervention. Observable from 10-50 meters.  Attacker has access to the target for less than 20 minutes. Moderate equipment or volumes of contaminants may be used, but with significant limitation on time. General Information available on the Internet. Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered fair.

5 – 6

Hardly Accessible (e.g. inside a building, but in a secured part of facility). Human observation and physical barrier with an established means of intervention. Observable from 10 meters or less. Limited general information available on the Internet. Attacker has access to the target for less than 10 minutes. Equipment and/or contaminant must be able to be disguised and time limitations are extreme. Limited general information available on the Internet.  Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered fair.

3 – 4

Not Accessible. Physical barriers, alarms, and human observation as well as separated by an additional factor such as height.  Defined means of intervention.  Not observable or only observable by operators.  No useful information available electronically. Attacker can access target for less than 1 minute with all equipment carried in pockets.  No useful information available electronically. Computer security for networks, users and applications is considered excellent.

1 – 2

 Recognizability:  A target’s recognizability is the degree to which it can be identified by an attacker under varying conditions of distance, weather, light, and season without confusion with other targets or components.  Factors that influence recognizability include the size and complexity of the target, the existence of distinctive target aspects, the presence (absence) of masking or camouflage, and the technical sophistication and training of the threat.

 Example metrics of recognizability for use as a generic model that must be modified for specific sites and scenarios are:

Criteria

Scale

The target is clearly recognizable under all conditions and from a distance and requires little or no training for recognition

9 – 10

The target is easily recognizable requires a small amount of training for recognition

7 – 8

The target is difficult to recognize at night or in bad weather or might be confused with other targets or target components and requires some training for recognition

5 – 6

The target is difficult to recognize at night or in bad weather.  It is easily confused with other targets or components and requires extensive training for recognition

3 – 4

The target cannot be recognized under any conditions, except by experts or insiders

1 – 2

 Shock:  The shock value of a successful attack is a psychological effect, but for the purpose of assessing the degree of threat posed by terrorists, this specific effect must be examined separately from other effects.  By definition, terrorists target to achieve terror and cause horror and strong emotional responses from their broader target audience.  Aspects of targets that terrorists view as increasing a target’s shock value are symbolism (e.g., the Pentagon), massive population concentrations (e.g., the World Trade Center in South Manhattan), sensitive nature of facilities (e.g., nuclear facilities), and the ability to strike at core values and primal emotions through their target (e.g., targeting children).

 Assessing shock value is highly subjective.  In an effort to add credence to a factor that evaluates the emotional effect of an action, we draw from yet another targeting tool designed to evaluate this variable.  The following is an explanation of the DSHARP targeting process.  This process was used mainly in the past by the US Air Force for targeting an adversary’s high-risk infrastructures and the emotional effect it would have on the people dependant upon those assets. However, in the mid-80’s it was discovered that it was a highly effective tool for US Special Operations Forces to use for planning the defense of and or targeting of high population areas.  Listed below is an explanation of DSHARP and an example of how it can be used to determine the SHOCK factor for the CARVER Matrix.

The Acronym, DSHARP, stands for: 

D = DEMOGRAPHICS

S = SYMBOLOGY

H = HISTORICAL

A = ACCESSIBILITY

R = RECUPERABILITY

P = POPULATION

Because some of these factors were already considered in the CARVER process, only the symbology, historical, and population factors will be considered in this analysis.

 From the point of view of the critical civilian infrastructures, the DSHARP selection factors will assist you in determining, AHEAD OF TIME, which components of your industry that you feel that a terrorist or a group of terrorists would select as their most likely targets or components to attack. 

 As the factors are considered, they are given a numerical value.  This value represents the desirability of attacking the target.  The values are then placed in a decision matrix.  After DSHARP values for each target or component are assigned, add the scores across the row. This target ranking in the final column (from the highest number to the lowest) will develop into a list of components that show all the indications of becoming a target by an individual or group. The numerical scale that is used can be rewritten to reflect the conditions of each individual civilian industry and can accurately be used to show the real world impacts that would occur at your facility or installation.  

SYMBOLOGY

A target has a symbolic value to an attacker when an extremist or terrorist element can attach a relationship between the attacker and the population target, i.e. US Marines have a symbolic value to Lebanese Hezbollah due to the Beirut missions; the World Trade was a symbol of the United States wealth and prosperity; the Pentagon is symbolic of America’s military might, etc.

The table below shows how the symbolic values are assigned on DSHARP matrices.

CRITERIA

SCALE

Target has historical, religious, or, other symbolic significance (e.g. associated with children or the American culture) to at least 50% of the entire population

9-10

Target has historical, religious, or, other symbolic significance (e.g. associated with children or the American culture) to a specific section of the population

7-8

Target has historical, religious, or, other symbolic significance (e.g. associated with children or the American culture) to a limited specific section of the population

5-6

Associated with economic or production capability of the victims

3-4

Area of no significant economic, historical, religious, or, other symbolic significance

1-2

Table 2.  Assigning symbolic values

HISTORICAL

A target’s historical value is determined by checking to see if there have been other attacks of this type before, i.e. Abortion Clinics have well established histories of targeting by right to life groups; Federal Buildings with large concentrations of workers have a history of drawing attacks by anti-government militia groups, etc.

The table below shows how historical values are assigned on DSHARP matrices.

CRITERIA

SCALE

Attacks against this type of target conducted routinely by all known threats

9-10

Attacks against this target conducted routinely by primary threat

7-8

Attacks against this type of target have occurred before

5-6

Attacks against this type of target have been threatened

3-4

Attacks against this type of target fit the method of operation of the threat

1-2

Table 3.  Assigning historical values

 POPULATION

The type and magnitude of the given effect on the population that is desired will help the adversary select his or her target.  Population in this context addresses all significant effects, whether desired or not, that may result once the selected target component is attacked.  Possible effects can be speculative and should be labeled as such. 

The table below shows how population values are assigned on DSHARP matrices.

CRITERIA

SCALE

Extremely large population effect (1000+), new world record: i.e. World Trade Center

9-10

Significant impact on international policy with mass casualties (100+); Lockerbie Airliner bombing

7-8

Significant impact on national policy, large population center (100+), extensive casualties, major stress on infrastructure; Murrah Federal Building

5-6

Significant Casualty (10+) with significant impact on general population in target area; IRA shopping mall bombings

3-4

Attack on small number (1-10) on specific individuals (assassination) or types of individuals; El Salvador café, Cairo bus; majority of local populace not affected

1-2

Table 6.  Assigning population values

 

 

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